PHOENIX — We have been talking about this day for months.
We have devoted so many TV, radio and podcast hours, and even more written words on something that is often dreadfully boring.
And, mercifully, it’s finally here.
It’s Major League Baseball’s 2024 trade deadline, which is officially set for 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday, July 30.
We will know once and for all what teams truly believe they have a chance, what teams are bowing out, and what teams remain so confused they don’t do a dang thing.
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It’s been a roller-coaster ride of rumors and speculation over the past few months, but when the smoke clears Tuesday, everyone could be left wondering why the baseball world gets so worked up over so little drama.
Let’s be honest, there’s no Justin Verlander or Juan Soto in this trade market.
But if you really want to work yourself into a lather over where Erick Fedde or Isaac Paredes will be playing next, hey, feel free.
“I think the trade deadline stinks,” Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt told reporters. “It does. You’re either losing people you love, or you’re gaining somebody that you don’t know. And it can be scary for people.’
Let’s look at just what has shaped this trade deadline, with one of the best seller’s markets in the past 40 years, and and we can expect in the next 72 hours:
Trade deadline candidates: Trio’s stock is falling
1. Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox
Persons familiar with Crochet’s thinking informed USA TODAY Sports last month that if he’s traded he would like to have a contract extension since he’s only earning $800,000 and under control through just 2026.
Well, now that the trade deadline is around the corner, Crochet’s camp started spreading the word that not only does Crochet want an extension if he’s traded, but won’t pitch in the postseason if he doesn’t get an extension. You can imagine the White Sox’s rage considering they had not been informed of that demand until it became public.
Teams who wanted to trade for Crochet, 6-7, 3.07 ERA, 157 strikeouts in 111 innings, and use him as a hybrid starter and reliever, now are having second thoughts whether they should bother acquiring him if he’s going to shut it down.
Still, teams like the Dodgers remain unfazed, badly coveting Crochet, and wonder if it’s nothing more than a negotiating ploy.
Come on, do you really think Crochet is going to walk into the Dodgers clubhouse, look into the eyes of Clayton Kershaw, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, and say “Sorry boys, I’m sitting this one out. I’ll leave my address for my postseason share. And if you win the World Series, here’s my ring size’?
No one is asking him to be CC Sabathia, who pitched on three days’ rest in four consecutive starts in September, 2008 when the Milwaukee Brewers acquired him as a rental in his free agent year. While it’s understandable that Crochet wants to protect his arm, the team acquiring him will want to be cautious with him, too, knowing he’s under control for two more years.
While Crochet, who has pitched twice as many innings (111⅓ innings) than his entire career combined, may still be the No. 1 prize on the pitcher’s market, his value has taken a hit.
2. Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics
So Miller most likely wasn’t going to be traded, anyways, not with that golden arm and five more years of control.
Still, the A’s were listening to offers, just in case someone blew them away.
Those calls ended Thursday when Miller, their All-Star closer, was placed on the 15-day injured list after slamming his left hand on a trainer’s table and breaking his pinkie.
Miller had gone into the trainer’s room after pitching the final three outs of the A’s 4-0 victory against the Houston Astros, but when he was reminded that he still had to get into the gym for a weightlifting session, he slammed his fist into the table out of frustration.
Miller’s agent originally told MLB.com that Miller injured his hand while awkwardly putting it on the training table getting ready to exercise, but A’s manager Mark Kotsay called him out.
“Mason’s agent might have thought differently and made a statement of his own,’ Kotsay told reporters. “How we do things in this organization is to tell the truth.’
The trade talks immediately ended with Miller being fitted with a cast, leaving teams only to dream about what Miller could have looked like closing out games after striking out 70 batters in 40 ⅔ innings for the A’s, limiting opponents to a .146 batting average.
3 . Yusei Kikuchi, Blue Jays
The Toronto left-hander was never being confused for Dave Stieb, but those high-end prospects they hoped to get in return vanished with Kikuchi going 2-5 with a 6.87 ERA in his last 12 starts.
Buy or sell? These teams still undecided
San Francisco Giants
They hired a new manager in Bob Melvin, spent $211 million in free agency, including the spring-training signings of Blake Snell, Matt Chapman and Jorge Soler, and now don’t know whether to dump those same players to get under the $237 million competitive balance tax threshold or make a run for it.
They entered Saturday with a 50-55 record, but with mediocrity running supreme in the National League, are only 5 ½ games out of a wild-card spot.
Rival GMs believe the Giants will sell, and besides their big three free-agent pickups, will shop players like reliever Taylor Rogers, starter Alex Cobb, outfielders Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski, and infielder Wilmer Flores.
Cincinnati Reds
They are 50-53, just 4 ½ games out of a wild-card berth, and are trying to decide whether they’re a legitimate contender or not. They are poised to buy, but are certainly built to sell with Jonathan India and Frankie Montas.
Their ultimate fate may not be decided until Tuesday morning.
Best pre-deadline deal (so far)
No one in all of baseball needed offensive help more than the Seattle Mariners, who lost 20 of 29 games, and are in danger of wasting the finest pitching staff in baseball.
This is a team that entered the weekend averaging 3.75 runs a game with a 28% strikeout rate and an MLB-low .214 batting average that would be the lowest since 1920.
So, what do they do?
Trade for former All-Star outfielder Randy Arozarena without giving up any of their top assets.
Arozarena had a dreadful start, hitting .158 in April and May, but since is hitting .290 with seven homers, 13 doubles and a .904 OPS. And remember, he is a career .336 hitter with 11 home runs, 17 RBI and a 1.104 OPS in 33 postseason games.
The Mariners, awaiting Arozarena’s arrival Friday, celebrated by scoring eight runs in the first inning against the Chicago White Sox in their 10-0 rout. It was the most runs the Mariners scored in the first inning since July 30, 2003, and included back-to-back-to-back homers.
It was only the White Sox, but considering their sad-sack offense, who would blame them for celebrating as if it was the opening ceremony in Paris?
“We’re going for it,” said Mariners reliever Trent Thornton told the Seattle Times. “We’re here to win. We’re here to win the whole damn thing. It’s not just make the playoffs. This is going to be a team that can take care of business.”
Oh yeah, and they may not be done, even after acquiring reliever Yimi Garcia from the Blue Jays, searching for more offense.
Best purely baseball trade
The Orioles, after watching veteran closer Craig Kimbrel blow ninth-inning leads in back-to-back nights, acquired veteran reliever Seranthony Dominguez in the deal.
It will be quite the compelling storyline if these two teams meet in the World Series.
Best non-trade transaction
Boston Red Sox: They signed manager Alex Cora to a three-year, $21.75 million contract extension last week, preventing him from entering the free-agent market.
Cora has done a magnificent job, and is as responsible as anyone for the Red Sox even being in the zip code of a pennant race. The fact that Cora chose to come back signals that the Red Sox plan to spend money and be a perennial contender again.
“There’s a commitment from top to bottom,’’ Cora told reporters, “to keep pushing to get that trophy back here in Boston.”
Biggest stars who *won’t* be traded
1. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers: If the Tigers ever are going to reach the postseason again, you win with this guy.
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays: He wants to stay and is willing to sign a long-term extension to do so.
3. Bo Bichette, Blue Jays: He may be fleeing for the free-agent door in a year, but if the Blue Jays are going to win a playoff game before this window closes, they need him one more season.
4. Max Scherzer, Texas Rangers: He has a full no-trade clause and never wanted to be traded. Now that the Rangers are winning, it assures he won’t.
5. Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles didn’t spend all of those years being the worst team in baseball to collect fabulous young talent and trade it all away.
In it to win it: These teams went from sellers to buys
1. New York Mets: The Mets were dead and buried in June, with teams lining up to acquire All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso and their surplus of starting pitching. They since have stopped stinking, and have gone 26-14 since June 7.
2. Texas Rangers: They were given last rites a month ago, just a 5.5% chance of reaching the playoffs, but tore off the life support tubes, and have won 18 of their last 31 games, and are going to give themselves every chance to repeat as World Series champions.
3. Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox were supposed to finish last in the AL East, Alex Cora was supposed to be fleeing town, and new Red Sox GM Craig Breslow was supposed to be run out of town.
Only a funny thing happened. The Red Sox started winning, and never stopped.
4. Houston Astros: The Astros opened the season with a 7-19 record and their glorious seven-year run of reaching the ALCS, with four pennants and two World Series titles, was going to end. The next thing you know, they make up 10 games in the month of July and are now in a virtual dead heat with the Mariners, and poised to acquire a starter on the trade market.
Mistakes were made: Sellers after all
1. Chicago Cubs: Uh, weren’t these guys supposed to win the NL Central, even run away with it? Instead, they may be baseball’s biggest disappointment and are now waving the white flag, shopping starter Jameson Taillon, outfielder Cody Bellinger, infielder Nico Hoerner and relievers Mark Leiter Jr. and Hector Neris.
“We just haven’t played the way we should,” Taillon told reporters. “It’s not like that caught me or probably anyone off guard. It stinks, but it is what it is. We’ve done it to ourselves.”
2. Tampa Bay Rays: They spoiled us by overachieving year after year with five consecutive postseasons berths. Reality finally hit, and in one of the darkest days in franchise history, they officially surrendered by trading Randy Arozarena and Zach Eflin within 17 hours.
“It stinks right now to make these deals,” Erik Neander, president of baseball operations, told reporters.
The Rays, who traded Aaron Civale and Phil Maton earlier in July, save more than $30 million in 2025 with the moves.
Best players everyone wants but won’t be traded
Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies: The Yankees would love to get their hands on McMahon and play him at third base. He’s an All-Star and is having a monster season. But sorry, the Rockies love him, he’s under contract for three more years, and they’re not even listening to offers for him.
Tarik Skubal, Tigers: Who wouldn’t want an AL Cy Young contender? The Tigers say they are only being responsible by listening, but the reality is they never had any intention of trading him. If nothing else, they were at least amused by the rumors and wild speculation.
Executive most likely to surprise
Alex Anthopoulos, Atlanta: Come on, you really think he’s going to let reigning MVP Ronald Acuña and ace Spencer Strider’s season-ending injuries ruin the season? You think he’s going to let a six-game losing streak, their longest since 2017, ruin the season. You think playing under .500 since late April will ruin the season?
Then you really don’t know Anthopoulos.
You can be assured he’ll work his magic, just as he did in 2021 when he grabbed three under-the-radar outfielders in July, and a few months later, was celebrating a World Series title.
What team will trade the most players?
Chicago White Sox: Will the last person left on the Southside please turn out the lights?
The White Sox could unload as many as seven players before the deadline:
Garrett Crochet
Erick Fedde
Luis Robert Jr.
Michael Kopech
Chris Flexen
Tommy Pham
Paul DeJong
Around the basepaths
– Former All-Star catcher A.J. Pierzynski has quietly emerged as a serious candidate to manage the Chicago White Sox in 2025 if they dismiss manager Pedro Grifol after the season, as expected.
– The Oakland A’s have informed teams they may trade only reliever Luis Erceg at the deadline, keeping everyone else, including DH/outfielder Brent Rooker.
– The White Sox are telling contenders in the AL Central, including the Minnesota Twins, that they really would prefer not to trade within the division. The Twins and Guardians would love to get their hands on starter Erick Fedde.
– The Blue Jays had told teams in the past week they were not going to listen to offers for Yusei Kikuchi until he made his Friday start. Now, they’re listening.
– The Tigers plan on trading starter Jack Flaherty, but will remind teams they need to offer a better deal because they plan to offer Flaherty a qualifying offer after the season.
– The Orioles weren’t ready to make a trade with the Phillies until closer Craig Kimbrel and the bullpen melted down, blowing a 6-0 lead to Miami, abruptly becoming much more aggressive on Friday.
– The Houston Astros are desperately trying to land a starter, focusing on Flaherty and Fedde, and would also love to acquire Rays infielder Isaac Paredes, too.
– The Yankees have never been so happy to see the return of Giancarlo Stanton, who’s scheduled to return Monday. Their cleanup hitters are batting .164 with a .258 slugging percentage since their June 15 slide.
– Just how dominant has Cleveland Guardians closer Emanuel Clase been this year?
The Guardians are 64-0 in their last 64 games when leading after eight innings.
– Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt, telling reporters his feelings about the Blue Jays selling at the deadline: “It just sucks. I don’t think anyone thought this is what was going to happen.”
– Teams sweating finances because of their reduced TV revenue because of their RSN agreements being dropped or lowered got a temporary lifesaver this week when the union agreed to permit commissioner Rob Manfred to distribute about $75 million from their luxury tax proceeds to teams in need, maxing out at $15 million for individual teams.
“We believe this agreement should positively affect the player market by softening the impact of revenue declines, by increasing the number of clubs who have monies to spend, and by undermining the ability of clubs to weaponize recent developments in RSN markets,” the union said in a memo to players, according to The Athletic.
– Fabulous career by Blue Jays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, who plans to retire after a 12-year career, winning four Gold Gloves.
“Watching him play on the other side, I think he was a guy who was easy to hate,’ Blue Jays manager John Schneider told reporters, “because he took so many hits away. And he was a pain in the ass.”
– The Milwaukee Brewers got a dose of good news when All-Star outfielder Christian Yelich was prescribed rest, and not season-ending back surgery. This is the fourth time since 2019 he has gone on the IL with back problems.
– What is it about the Mets that Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has a 6.99 ERA against them and a 3.11 ERA against the rest of the world?
– The Tampa Bay Rays have a nice bidding war going between the Dodgers and Yankees for Paredes.
– The Minnesota Twins, who cut their payroll by about $35 million this year, are hamstrung in their pursuit of trade acquisitions unless they’re able to dump a contract.
– The White Sox have no plans to pick up Eloy Jimenez’s $16.5 million and $18.5 million club options after this season, concluding his six-year, $43 milion contract extension that backfired for the Sox.
– Just how bad have the White Sox been this year?
They have already been swept 15 times.
– The Angels are getting plenty of action on starter Tyler Anderson (2.91 ERA), but considering he is under contract at $13 million next season, the Angels realize that they won’t get a quality starter to replace him at the same contact and could keep him.
– The best trade partners in the game these days are the Mariners and Marlins who have made 15 deals with one another.
– Shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald became the first Giants player to hit seven or more homers in an eight-game span since Barry Bonds in 2004.
– The San Diego Padres played 8,205 games before producing a no-hitter.
Now, they have two in their last 582 games with Dylan Cease throwing the second no-hitter this season and joining his roommate, Joe Musgrove. Yes, Cease lives in Musgrove’s guesthouse in Point Loma, Calif.
– It’s hard to believe that the Athletics have scored 18 or more runs three times this year, including 20 against the Marlins.
Only the Rockies have scored at least 18 runs in a game.
– Hey buddy, can you spare an infielder? The Dodgers are currently without Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Chris Taylor and Miguel Rojas.
No wonder they’re in trade talks trying to acquire Nico Hoerner of the Cubs or Luis Rengifo of the Angels.
– The Diamondbacks, who have the best record in the National League since June 19, are looming larger in the NL wild-card race.
They not only acquired late-inning reliever A.J. Puk, but will have starters Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez returning in August, joining Jordan Montgomery who just returned to the rotation.
They will be back in the postseason with a more dangerous team than the one that won the pennant last year.
– Now that the Orioles have new ownership, they didn’t blink trading for veteran starter Zach Eflin, who is owed the rest of his $11 million salary this year and $18 million in 2025. The Rays chipped in $1 million in the deal only to cover Eflin’s $1 million trade bonus.
Eflin becomes their highest-paid player in 2025.
– Like father, like son: Brendan Sabean, son of future Hall of Fame executive Brian Sabean, has been hired to become the first GM of the NBA Phoenix Suns’ G League affiliate.
– The Padres badly need another starter if they’re going to reach the postseason. Consider this: Three of their four starters are going to have a reduced workload down the stretch.
Michael King, Matt Waldron and Randy Vasquez have already eclipsed their career-high in innings at the major-league level this season, and veterans Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish remain sidelined.
– Tough break for Mets ace Kodai Senga, who finally made his season debut on Friday after being out with a sore shoulder. He pitched 5 1/3 innings, but is now out for the season with a strained calf.
– Remember when the Yankees had the best record in baseball at 50-22.
Since then? They’ve lost 23 of their last 33 games.
– The Astros, who balked at the idea of giving All-Star right fielder Kyle Tucker a long-term contract extension before he hits free agency in a year, are proving they can at least win without him.
Tucker has been out since June 3 with a bruised shin, and have since gone 27-15.
– Congratulations to the Kansas City Royals (57-47) who have already won more games before August than they did all of last season (56-106).
They’re a role model for the White Sox and all teams who are hoping for a drastic turnaround in 2025.
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