Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. Equities remained in a “NoGo” trend this past week however after gapping lower on Monday, prices rallied until on Friday GoNoGo Trend painted a weaker pink bar. Treasury bond prices painted weaker aqua “Go” bars as the trend remained in place. U.S. commodity index hung on to its “NoGo” trend with a pink bar at the end of the week. The dollar also remained in a “NoGo” trend painting weaker pink bars.
$SPY Rallies but Not Yet Out of “NoGo”
Price gapped lower again on Monday, but then steadily climbed all week. The weight of the evidence tells us that the trend is still a “NoGo” however the indicator is painting a weaker pink bar. GoNoGo Oscillator is testing the zero level from below and volume is heavy. We will watch to see if the oscillator gets turned away, back into negative territory. If it does, the “NoGo” trend is likely to continue.
The strong rally this week put the weekly close very close to the previous close. A third aqua “Go” bar tells us that the trend remains week on this longer term chart, however, the “Go” survives again this week. We will continue to monitor the GoNoGo Oscillator as it rests at zero. If it can find support here, then we may see the “Go” trend remain in place. Multi time frame analysis tells us to keep this chart in mind when we look at the lower timeframes.
Treasury Rates Rally off Lows
This week we saw another low for treasury rates. Then, price rallied strongly all week. GoNoGo Trend begin to paint weaker pink “NoGo” bars mid week as prices climbed. GoNoGo Oscillator rallied to test the zero level from below and was quickly rejected. This tells us that momentum is resurgent in the direction of the “NoGo” trend. We will look to see if price moves back lower this week.
The weekly chart below shows that the support we saw on the chart last week held. Price dipped below the horizontal level but the weekly close was back above it. GoNoGo Oscillator has also rallied out of oversold territory but is still negative.
The Dollar’s “NoGo” Trend Remains
Price moved sharply lower a week ago. We then saw prices climb from those lows as the week progressed. However, GoNoGo Trend shows that the “NoGo” survived the week on weaker pink bars as the rally stalled. GoNoGo Oscillator rallied quickly to test the zero line from below but was rejected on heavy volume. This tells us that momentum is resurgent in the direction of the “NoGo” trend and so we will look for price to fall this week.