NEW YORK – For the next week, a more appropriate name for the U.S. Open would be the US Opportunity.
With the stunning early exits by No. 3 seed Carlos Alcaraz and No. 2 seed Novak Djokovic on back-to-back days, the men’s draw has been turned upside down.
If you’ve been paying close attention, it’s probably not a huge surprise. After winning the French Open, Wimbledon and then getting to the finals of the Olympics, Alcaraz was predictably out of gas. After targeting an Olympic gold medal to complete his career trophy case and then pulling it off in improbable fashion, the 37-year-old Djokovic didn’t figure to be sharp in New York. And he wasn’t, losing in the third round to Alexei Popyrin.
It leaves a final 16 with only one former U.S. Open champion in No. 5 seed Daniil Medvedev and just one other Grand Slam champion in No. 1 seed Jannik Sinner. With those two on track to meet in the quarterfinals, there’s going to be a huge opportunity for the rest of the field to snag a major title.
“Alcaraz is out, I’m out, some big upsets, the draw is opening up,” Djokovic said. “Obviously Sinner is the main favorite but … you have great guys playing well. Anybody can take it. It’s going to be interesting to see.”
Indeed, Sinner looks like a strong favorite to win his first U.S. Open and sweep the two hard-court Grand Slams this year. After dropping the first set of the tournament against Mackenzie McDonald, the 23-year-old Italian has been pretty much untouchable.
But if not Sinner, then who? Here’s our ranking of the other 15 remaining men based on their likelihood of winning the tournament.
1. Alexander Zverev
The 27-year-old German is arguably the best player in the history of men’s tennis not to win a major. But he’s certainly had his chances: In the 2020 U.S. Open final, he won the first two sets against Dominic Thiem before collapsing, and at the 2024 French Open, he was one set away against Alcaraz before losing in five.
Zverev’s nerve management at the end of a Grand Slam will be a question mark until he finally wins one. But he’s the best player on the bottom half of the draw, and maybe this is his time.
2. Daniil Medvedev
Despite a series of substandard results since Wimbledon, Medvedev loves it here. He has made three of the last five US Open finals and played dominant tennis when he rolled to the title in 2021. Medvedev has a truly favorable draw to get to yet another final – but only if he can beat Sinner, which has been a huge challenge for him over the last year.
After winning their first six meetings, Medvedev lost the next five – including this year’s Australian Open final. But Medvedev managed to turn the tables in the Wimbledon quarters, playing a tremendous match to win in five.
3. Taylor Fritz
The American has been all business through the first three rounds, including a highly impressive 6-3, 7-6, 6-1 victory over former top-10 Matteo Berrettini, who was unseeded after an injury-plagued year but had been in good form coming into New York.
Fritz is serving really well and has reached the quarterfinals in three of the last four majors. The next step is to break through to a semifinal, and if he can get that done – potentially against Zverev in the quarters – it might unlock a new level to his confidence.
4. Frances Tiafoe
Nobody on the men’s side gets more crowd support here than Frances Tiafoe. After spending much of the last year in a strange mental funk, Big Foe started to turn things around this summer and has looked like his old self on the hard courts. Though Tiafoe only has three ATP titles on his resume, all at the 250 level, he seems to play at least a few notches above that in New York and came very close to winning this title in 2022 when he took Alcaraz to five sets in the semifinals.
Tiafoe will face Popyrin on Sunday night with another huge crowd behind him in Arthur Ashe Stadium. How will he react now that the draw has opened up a little bit and he’s suddenly one of the favorites?
5. Casper Ruud
The 2022 US Open finalist hasn’t been very good or healthy in this portion of the year, but he seems to be playing his way back into shape. His matchup against Fritz on Sunday afternoon should be one of the best of the tournament. Ruud is 2-0 against Fritz, but they’ve never played on an outdoor hard court, a surface that should slightly favor the American.
6. Tommy Paul
Paul’s chances would rate considerably higher if not for having arguably the toughest path left to the title. He’s got to get through Sinner in the round of 16, then likely Medvedev, to reach his second Grand Slam semifinal. But at age 27, Paul has become consistent enough that winning a major no longer seems out of his reach. It might take a perfect set of circumstances, but he’s got the all-court game and the athleticism to do it.
7. Andrey Rublev
The emotionally volatile Russian has made 10 Grand Slam quarterfinals but zero semifinals. If not now, when? Rublev is 4-1 on outdoor hard courts against his good buddy Grigor Dimitrov, whom he’ll face on Sunday. And if he can get by that one, he should be favored on paper against either Tiafoe or Popyrin. Having said that, Rublev’s game is just straight-ahead power off the ground and his lack of variety – plus a questionable second serve – typically puts a ceiling on him in the latter stages of the majors.
8. Jack Draper
It’s nice to see the 22-year-old Brit with a big game start to put it together after a slow start to his Grand Slam career. Having said that, Draper’s draw has been pretty soft thus far, including an easy third-round win against Botic van de Zandschulp when he was slated to play Alcaraz. Draper gets another great matchup in the round of 16 against No. 39 Tomas Machac and could also be favored in the quarterfinals. It just feels like winning the title is one step further than he’s ready for right now.
9. Alexei Popyrin
Conquering Djokovic was a big moment in his career, but not necessarily bigger than winning the Canadian Masters earlier this month. Popyrin has big weapons, but this is the first time he’s ever been past the third round of a Grand Slam.
10. Alex de Minaur
The issue for de Minaur, ranked No. 10, is the hip injury he suffered at Wimbledon that forced him to withdraw from the quarterfinals. Though he’s managed to get through three rounds of the Open, he is not 100% and has talked about having to play a little differently to protect the hip. At some point, that’s probably going to catch up to him. But if healthy, the ultra-consistent de Minaur would be an intriguing long shot to win his first major here.
11. Grigor Dimitrov
Dimitrov winning the US Open at age 33, many years after he was anointed a future Grand Slam champion, would be a sweet story. It’s just not a likely one, despite the fact Dimitrov has played some of his best tennis over the last year or so. Maintaining his mental focus for seven rounds in the majors has always been a challenge.
12. Brandon Nakashima
He’s had an amazing tournament so far, including a third-round upset over Lorenzo Musetti. But that’s where it probably ends for the 23-year-old American, who has to play Zverev next.
13. Jordan Thompson
The veteran Aussie is having his best year on tour, reaching a career-high ranking of No. 30 earlier this month. He’s pretty dangerous on a fast hard court, but this is just the second time he’s been to the fourth round in 37 career Slams.
14. Tomas Machac
Notched a very impressive straight-sets win over No. 16 seed Sebastian Korda in the second round to open up his path to the second week of the tournament. It wouldn’t be a shock at this point if he made the semifinals in the most wide-open part of the draw, but that’s as far as it will go.
15. Nuno Borges
After pulling out a tough five-setter against Czech teenage phenom Jakub Mensik, Borges remarkably now finds himself in a second Grand Slam round of 16 this year. Given that the 27-year-old Borges started the year No. 66 in the world, it’s a huge accomplishment that he’ll leave New York with a new career-high ranking of around No. 30. Regardless of what else happens, that’s a great result.