Former President Donald Trump has lost his edge in Georgia and North Carolina in the latest Fox News Power Rankings, giving Vice President Kamala Harris a lead in the overall forecast for the first time.
However, with six toss-up states on the map worth a combined 78 electoral votes, this election is still anyone’s game.
Debate watchers say Harris won, but wait a few weeks to assess the race
Debate watchers declared Harris the winner of Tuesday’s presidential debate. In a flash poll conducted by CNN in the hours after the showdown, 63% of watchers said they thought Harris had a better performance, and 37% said Trump did.
Trump made headlines for unfounded claims about migrants eating pets and a rebuttal about the size of his rallies, leaving Harris, who stayed on topic and made appeals to moderates, largely out of the conversation after the debate.
When Trump was able to communicate effectively, he told voters that the nation was in decline because of the cost of living and illegal immigration. Issues polling continues to show that it is a strong message.
As with any major event, it will take a few weeks to assess the debate’s impact on the horse race.
Polling shifts after previous debates in the Trump era have been modest. For example, President Biden’s abysmal performance in June cost him his candidacy but only two points in an average of high quality polls taken in the two weeks after the debate.
In 2020, political observers called Trump the clear loser of the first debate after he aggressively interrupted his opponent and the moderator, but he only lost a point in post-debate polls.
Biden saw no change at all in his level of support after the more evenly matched second debate.
However, a point or two means a lot in races that could be decided by only a few thousand votes, so do not confuse ‘modest’ for ‘inconsequential.’
Voters are evenly divided in national surveys
The national race is still tight as a tick, and Trump’s support is steady despite this unprecedented news cycle.
Over the last 12 months of the Fox News Poll, between 48-50% of registered voters have said they supported Trump.
Criminal indictments, a conviction, the primaries, a last-minute change in opponents and an assassination attempt did nothing to move the former president out of that three-point range.
In other words, while Trump has not gained any support over the last year, he has not lost any support either. He remains very competitive in this race.
The Democrats’ numbers have improved. While Biden polled as low as 45% earlier this year, Harris is now only one point behind Trump at 49% in the latest Fox national survey.
A series of recent polls from the New York Times/Siena, Marist, Pew and the Wall Street Journal show a similarly even race.
Trump has lost his edge in two battleground states
Harris’ gains extend to the battleground states, where two races are moving in her direction.
Last election, Biden’s closest win was in Georgia, which he flipped on a 0.2-point margin, and Trump’s closest win was in North Carolina, which he kept by 1.3 points.
With Harris as the nominee, both states are just as competitive today.
In Georgia, Trump is ahead by three points in a Quinnipiac poll among likely voters released last week (49%-46%) and leads by seven points in Siena’s registered voter survey from early August (51%-44%). However, Harris edges Trump by one point in CNN’s recent likely voter poll (48%-47%) and is ahead by two in Fox’s August survey (50%-48%).
Democrats always perform well in the Atlanta metropolitan area, which contains highly populated counties like Fulton and DeKalb and makes up more than 60% of the state’s residents. Republicans run up the margins in the rural areas, and Trump has consistently brought them out to vote. Harris kicked off a bus tour in the southeastern city of Savannah last month as she attempts to chip away at the margins there.
In nearby North Carolina, Harris has three points over Trump in Quinnipiac’s likely voter poll last week (50%-47%) and had the same margin in Siena’s registered voter poll from early August (49%-46%). Trump is up by one point in Fox’s August survey (50%-49%).
North Carolina has become more competitive as its population has grown. Over the last full decade, North Carolina added roughly 1.1 million people, many of them in suburban counties like Mecklenburg and Wake. The pandemic brought more wealthy, urban Americans from surrounding states, another sign that Republican victories may not be a sure thing anymore.
Georgia and North Carolina moved from Lean R to Toss Up.
Harris continues to have an edge in Michigan in this forecast. Biden won the state by just under three points in 2020, and voters have delivered the Democrats important victories since that race. The GOP also has a weaker ground game there than in other must-win states.
Harris leads the forecast, but 78 toss-up votes mean this election is still anyone’s game
Harris leads this forecast with 241 electoral votes. Since Georgia and North Carolina have moved out of Trump’s column and are now toss-ups, he has 219 electoral votes.
That leaves 78 toss-up votes up for grabs across six battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
States that poll close in an election tend to be won and lost together. Trump won seven of the eight battlegrounds in 2016 (the states listed above plus Michigan and Nebraska’s second district), and Biden flipped six of the same eight in 2020.
Ballot measures that propose abortion rights guarantees in Arizona and Nevada could make those states outliers in a very close election. Those measures had support from three-quarters of voters in recent Fox News surveys.
However, the forecast shows that either candidate needs to win the bulk of the toss-up states to get to victory at 270 electoral votes.
If Harris has a good night by winning the six toss-ups, she reaches 319 electoral votes. Without them, she loses. Conversely, a good night for Trump would see him take home 297 electoral votes, and without the same states, he loses.
Harris is closer to the finish line than Trump, but the large number of states where neither candidate has an advantage means this race is still very competitive.
Less than 8 weeks until election night
Election night will be here before you know it. With Labor Day behind us and early voting scheduled to start in the coming days, we are in the final sprint of this once-in-a-lifetime cycle.
Vice presidential hopefuls Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. JD Vance will participate in a debate hosted by CBS News on October 1 in New York City.
Fox News Media has proposed a second Harris-Trump debate to be moderated by Martha MacCallum and Bret Baier in October.