There are four weeks left before the conference championship games, meaning we are inching closer to finding out who will be in the first 12-team College Football Playoff.
The initial reveal of the College Football Playoff rankings may have caused some surprises or frustrations, and while fans have to remember there’s still plenty of football left to make one of the coveted spots, the first reveal set the path teams have to go down. As a result, the critical November games become even more important for some.
It’s tough to predict the playoff field given this is an unprecedented season, but it’s safe to say some teams have their hopes hanging on by a thread. So, which games have the biggest impact on who stays in the playoff race in Week 11?
No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 15 LSU
Practically an elimination game, the loser of this game can effectively kiss their College Football Playoff hopes away. Heading into the season, there were questions if a three-loss team from the SEC or Big Ten would be able qualify for the playoff given the strength in each conference. At this point, it doesn’t appear to be possible.
The Crimson Tide boast one of the best wins in the country over Georgia, but the loss against Vanderbilt weighs heavy. They did lose to a quality opponent in Tennessee, but Alabama didn’t look good in that one, which has been the case in some of its victories. On the other land, the Tigers are coming off a convincing loss against Texas A&M, and the season-opening defeat to Southern California gets worse as the Trojans continue to struggle.
A loss from either side will create a very difficult path toward reaching the SEC championship game and the automatic conference title bid. The loser will also take a sizable drop in the next playoff rankings, and with no highly-ranked opponents left on schedule, there isn’t much left to impress the selection committee.
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 16 Mississippi
Georgia appears its way toward making the playoff, but this is Mississippi’s last stand.
There was plenty of hype prior to the season in the ‘Sip for Lane Kiffin’s crew with a possible path to the CFP. However, the Rebels are 7-2 headed into their toughest game of the season without any quality victories. Their best win is against South Carolina, while they lost to LSU and a bad Kentucky squad.
Now, Ole Miss needs to get one of the best wins in the country in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. A loss and the Rebels would certainly end the season without a ranked win.
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No. 24 Colorado vs. Texas Tech
Colorado didn’t play a game last week and saw its College Football Playoff chances boosted, thanks to Texas Tech. Now, the Red Raiders meet the Buffaloes in an elimination game.
Colorado is in a tie for second place in the Big 12 after winning five of its last six games, and knows a playoff spot is within its grasp. The Buffaloes, ranked No. 20 by the committee, have a realistic chance of qualifying for the conference title game and getting the automatic bid, but it relies on them at least keeping up with Iowa State. If Colorado loses, it would be at 4-2 in conference play and lose tiebreakers to Kansas State and Texas Tech with no quality victory. The current strength of schedule is at 80th, which doesn’t bode well.
For Texas Tech, last week’s win against then-unbeaten Iowa State revived its playoff hopes. Defeating Colorado would give them consecutive ranked victories, likely putting them in the Top 25 and just outside a conference title game spot.
No. 17 Clemson vs. Virginia Tech
Just a few weeks ago, Clemson looked like it was cruising toward the ACC title game and at worst, an at-large spot in the playoff. Now, Dabo Swinney needs some major work to get there after being ranked 23rd by the committee.
Clemson heads into Lane Stadium in need of a victory against a quality opponent. The tough season-opening loss to Georgia didn’t appear to weigh as much, but now it looms large in Clemson’s bid for a quality win after it couldn’t handle business against Louisville. A loss would also make it nearly impossible for the Tigers to have a path to the ACC conference championship game.
No. 18 Iowa State vs. Kansas
The last-minute loss to Texas Tech hurt Iowa State, and it was made more was painful by being No. 17 in the first playoff rankings. It comes down to a lack of schedule strength.
The best win for the Cyclones is against rival Iowa, and they haven’t faced the top end of the Big 12 yet. Iowa State very well can still go 11-1 and like its chances of making the playoff, but they can’t drop another trap game against a Kansas team that had solid expectations prior to this seasons and lost several close games. Falling to the Jayhawks would be devastating for the Cyclones, who still can win their way into the conference championship game.