Is Tennessee football a CFP team? Maybe, maybe not. Are the Vols a national championship contender? Absolutely not. Not with this offense.
Tennessee showed its lack of weapons in loss to Georgia that leaves Vols squarely on CFP bracket bubble.
What happened to Josh Heupel, once an offensive savant?
ATHENS, Ga. – Tennessee did not provide a definitive answer Saturday night to the question of whether the Volunteers are a worthy College Football Playoff team.
Know this, though: Tennessee’s 31-17 loss at Georgia confirmed the CFP selection committee’s weekslong concerns about the Vols’ offense and hurt Tennessee’s playoff stock.
Know this, too: Regardless of whether Tennessee (8-2) makes the postseason, this team is not built to pursue a national championship.
The Vols don’t possess an offense that can win an SEC title, let alone a national title. They don’t have an elite quarterback, at least not at this stage in redshirt freshman Nico Iamaleava’s development. They certainly don’t have the necessary wide receivers. They just don’t have much offensive punch at all beyond workhorse tailback Dylan Sampson.
Iamaleava tossed 33 passes against Georgia (8-2). His longest completion went for 17 yards.
In Tennessee’s 19-14 loss to Arkansas earlier this season, Iamaleava tallied only one completion for more than 17 yards.
Dink and dunk and hand to Sampson. That’s this offense. Tough to beat playoff-caliber teams that way.
‘There’s some things that we’re close on,’ Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said of his offense.
The Vols are running out of time to put it together.
Tennessee loss leaves CFP bracket bid hanging in balance
Beating Georgia not only would have solidified Tennessee’s playoff chances, it would have positioned the Vols to either secure a first-round bye by winning the SEC or host a first-round playoff game at Neyland Stadium, where Tennessee has lost only one game in the past three seasons.
Now, Tennessee’s cleanest avenue to the playoff would be finishing 10-2 and Notre Dame suffering a second loss. Otherwise, undefeated Indiana losing in lopsided fashion at Ohio State next weekend would be a boon for the Vols.
Those aren’t the only avenues, but it’s difficult to envision a situation in which the Vols would be seeded better than ninth in the CFP bracket, if they’re fortunate enough to qualify.
Such seeding would mean Tennessee would go on the road in the first round. Gulp. Tennessee’s point totals in three road games this season: 25, 14 and 17.
‘We knew what was at stake,’ Tennessee defensive lineman Jaxson Moi said of the playoff implications of Saturday’s game.
‘Obviously, we treated it like another game, but we had that in the back of our minds.’
And with the playoffs on the brain, the Vols got outscored by 24 points in the final three quarters. They can only hope the selection committee opted for an early bedtime.
A week ago, Georgia’s defenders were helpless to cover Ole Miss’ receivers, but they had no trouble blanketing the Vols.
Not hard to see difference in this Tennessee and 2022 Vols
If you’re looking for differences between Tennessee’s high-flying 11-win team from 2022 and this one, start the conversation at quarterback.
Veteran Hendon Hooker proved a maestro at operating Heupel’s up-tempo spread offense two years ago. He became a dangerous deep-shot artist, and star wide receiver Jalin Hyatt put fear into opposing defenses.
Nobody would confuse Iamaleava with Hooker, and nobody in Tennessee’s wide receiving corps mimics Hyatt’s ability to strain an opponent’s secondary by taking the top off the defense.
Heupel looked like an offensive savant two years ago, cooking up a savory dish with players signed by predecessor Jeremy Pruitt.
Now, Heupel produces results more akin to Pruitt’s attack, best described as punt and pray.
Average quarterback production and middling wide receivers don’t add up to a national championship contender.
Tennessee’s defense powered it to this point, but it required a dose of its old offensive flair to beat Georgia, and it produced little of it, and even less after a 10-point first quarter.
Georgia’s ceiling remains that of a national championship contender, because when the Bulldogs play at their best, they reach a high gear on both sides of the ball.
Tennessee doesn’t do that.
The Vols depend on their defense, and that’s been enough more times than not, but it’s tough to win that way when the opposing quarterback plays as well as Georgia’s Carson Beck did.
Beck shook off a slump and used this game to cure what ailed him. He completed 25 of 40 passes for 347 yards, and he would’ve had several more completions if his receivers were more surehanded.
Tennessee never sacked Beck, either.
‘Carson played a tremendous game,’ Georgia offensive lineman Jared Wilson said.
Tremendous, indeed, while the Vols’ offense played typical to what it’s been all season. Tennessee amounts to a fringe playoff team that lacks national championship potential, because of an offense that simply cannot muster much firepower.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.