Every week for the duration of the 2024 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − typically starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable. And, when Christmas falls on a Wednesday, we’ll be watching then, too.)
What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 5.
Here’s where things stand with Week 17 of the 2024 season underway:
NFC playoff picture
x – 1. Detroit Lions (13-2), NFC North leaders: Last week, they were in a three-way tie atop the conference and deadlocked for the division lead with Minnesota. But Philadelphia’s Week 16 defeat makes it increasingly likely the Lions and Vikings will be playing for all the important regular-season marbles in Week 18. Winning out gives the Lions everything they want, including home-field advantage. So would a win at San Francisco on Monday combined with a Minnesota loss to Green Bay. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Vikings
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x – 2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3), NFC East leaders: They’re coming off a rough Sunday. They lost their 10-game winning streak, an opportunity to wrap up the division and fell a game behind Detroit and Minnesota in the race for home-field advantage. Also, it doesn’t appear like concussed QB Jalen Hurts will play Sunday. But the Eagles are still just one win or Commanders loss from locking up the division and at least the No. 2 seed. Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6), NFC West leaders: Neither they nor the Seahawks have a pathway to a wild-card berth. If both the Rams and Seattle wind up 10-7, the currently undetermined strength-of-victory tiebreaker will come into play, likely in LA’s favor – and it could actually allow the Rams to clinch the division Sunday if they first take care of business against Arizona on Saturday. Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7), NFC South leaders: Rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. won his starting debut against the lowly Giants. But the real payoff came last Sunday night, when the Bucs – they were swept earlier in the season by Atlanta – lost at Dallas. The Falcons can win the division in Week 17 with another victory and another Tampa Bay loss. Remaining schedule: at Commanders, vs. Panthers
x – 5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2), wild card No. 1: Like Detroit, they control their very own potentially high-yield fate – win out, and the NFC North and No. 1 seed are Minnesota’s. Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, at Lions
x – 6. Green Bay Packers (11-4), wild card No. 2: Getting swept by Detroit and losing once already to Minnesota relegated the Pack to wild-card status … though Monday’s whitewash of the Saints was the latest reminder that this might actually be the last NFC North team you want to see in January. But given Packers are guaranteed to open the playoffs on the road, it will be interesting to see how much they play their key starters over the next two weeks given the limited upside to doing so. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, vs. Bears
7. Washington Commanders (10-5), wild card No. 3: Despite beating the Eagles, they didn’t quite clinch a postseason berth – but did remain alive in the NFC East while eliminating both the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers from the playoff picture. A win in Week 17 puts Washington into the dance. A loss could be highly problematic in the tiebreaker space as it would open an alternate avenue for the Bucs, who beat Washington in Week 1. Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons, at Cowboys
8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7), in the hunt: They’re going to need help to win the NFC West after a heartbreaking loss to Minnesota last Sunday. But Thursday night’s win at Chicago gets the Seahawks back on track … to a degree. Seattle’s best-case scenario involves a Rams loss Saturday and then beating them in Week 18. If both teams wind up 10-7, the undetermined strength-of-victory tiebreaker will prove pivotal, likely in LA’s favor. The Seahawks can be eliminated this weekend by a Rams win and a loss of the strength-of-victory tiebreaker, which will still be in flux Sunday. Remaining schedule: at Rams
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7), in the hunt: Last Sunday, they couldn’t handle a Dallas team eliminated from playoff contention earlier in the day. The Bucs could see their aspirations to keep the NFC South throne die this weekend. Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers, vs. Saints
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AFC playoff picture
yz – 1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1), AFC West champions: By crushing Pittsburgh, they secured home-field advantage and a first-round bye – and really two-plus weeks off in actuality depending on whom they want to play in what’s now a meaningless Week 18 contest for the champs. Remaining schedule: at Broncos, BYE
y – 2. Buffalo Bills (12-3), AFC East champions: Now out of the running for the No. 1 seed, finishing second in the conference should still have meaning given the road to Super Bowl 59 could go through Western New York if the Chiefs lose their playoff opener. Remaining schedule: vs. Jets, at Patriots
x – 3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5), AFC North leaders: Catching fire? Probably an understatement. The Steelers’ loss before Baltimore’s Christmas kickoff vaulted the Ravens atop the division, and their dominant win over Houston keeps them there. A win or tie in Week 18 clinches it. Remaining schedule: vs. Browns
y – 4. Houston Texans (9-7), AFC South champions: They rule a weak division for the second straight year, however Wednesday’s loss locked them into the fourth seed … which will likely mean a tough wild-card matchup, albeit in Houston, against an AFC North team. Remaining schedule: at Titans
x – 5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6), wild card No. 1: That’s three losses in a row, Wednesday’s flat performance against Kansas City costing them first place in the AFC North. However they can capture the divisional title by winning in Week 18 if Baltimore also loses to Cleveland. Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6), wild card No. 2: By sweeping the Broncos for the first time in 14 years, they prevented Denver from clinching in Week 16 while leapfrogging their division rivals and picking up the season tiebreaker (by virtue of the sweep). One more win locks Bolts into the field. Remaining schedule: at Patriots, at Raiders
7. Denver Broncos (9-6), wild card No. 3: They had a win-and-in scenario last week to stamp their first postseason trip since winning Super Bowl 50 nine years ago. Still, one more victory will advance Denver to the playoffs. Possibly major trouble ahead if they lose to Cincinnati in Week 17 … though the Broncos’ Week 18 game against Kansas City now means nothing to the Chiefs. Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Chiefs
8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8), in the hunt: Technically alive after winning on Sunday. Their record in AFC games (6-5) is better than Miami’s (5-5) and Cincinnati’s (4-6). Remaining schedule: at Giants, vs. Jaguars
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8), in the hunt: Technically alive after winning on Sunday. Remaining schedule: at Browns, at Jets
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8), in the hunt: Technically alive after winning on Sunday. Though they appear like the best team outside the field, they’ll need the most help to get in, including losses by the Colts and Dolphins. Remaining schedule: vs. Broncos, at Steelers
NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 17
Detroit clinches NFC North and NFC’s No. 1 seed (first-round bye and home-field advantage) with:
Win + Minnesota loss
Atlanta clinches NFC South with:
Win + Tampa Bay loss
Philadelphia clinches NFC East with:
Win or tie
Washington loss or tie
Los Angeles Rams clinch NFC West with:
Win while clinching strength-of-victory tiebreaker over Seattle
(Note: Rams clinch strength-of-victory tiebreaker with 3½ or more wins from the following teams: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Minnesota, San Francisco and Washington. A tie equates to a half-win in this formula.)
Denver clinches playoff berth with:
Win or tie
Los Angeles Chargers clinch playoff berth with:
Win or tie
Miami loss or tie + Indianapolis loss or tie
Washington clinches playoff berth with:
Win or tie
Tampa Bay loss or tie
NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 18 (incomplete)
Baltimore clinches AFC North with:
Win or tie
Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with:
Win + Baltimore loss
NFL teams eliminated from playoff contention in 2024
x – clinched playoff berth
y – clinched division
z – clinched home-field advantage, first-round bye
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