The ‘Dirty Birds’ hope to soar to a postseason spot in 2024.
Will the Falcons be successful in their quest to extend their season or will their wings be clipped with a rookie quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., under center?
Atlanta has spiraled for a good portion of the season, plagued by an aging Kirk Cousins, who hasn’t regained his footing following an Achilles injury last year. Eventually benched for Penix, the Falcons remain one of the NFL’s biggest mysteries.
They have a talented offense but are an average unit. Despite their issues, they are two weeks away from possibly making the postseason in 2024.
Here’s a look at how the Falcons can go dancing, NFL style, in 2024.
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Falcons playoff chances
The Falcons have a 45% chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model. That puts them behind the division rival Buccaneers, who enter Week 17 with a 60% chance of making the playoffs and a 55% chance of winning the NFC South.
Falcons playoff odds
Despite the models projecting Atlanta as postseason underdogs, BetMGM says otherwise. They list the Falcons as -140 favorites to win the NFC South, probably largely thanks to their tiebreaker advantage over Tampa. Those odds translate to a 58.3% implied probability, creating some value on the Buccaneers at +115 considering how the models view them.
The Falcons’ only path to the playoffs is by winning the division. They control their own destiny, but they face a massive Week 17 game that could determine whether Atlanta can extend its season.
What needs to happen for Falcons to make playoffs?
The Falcons have a fairly simple task ahead of them because they control their destiny. Here’s how Atlanta can get to the playoffs.
Clinch playoff spot in Week 17 with win (at Commanders) and Buccaneers’ loss (vs. Panthers)
Win their last two games (if Buccaneers win in Week 17)
Week 17: at Commanders
Week 18: vs. Panthers
However, things get dicey with a Falcons loss in Week 17. If the Bucs were to win over the Panthers, Atlanta would hand control of the division back to Tampa with one week to go. Under that scenario, here is how Atlanta can make the postseason in Week 18:
Week 18: Falcons win (vs. Panthers) and Buccaneers loss (vs. Saints)
The Falcons cannot make the playoffs as a wild card team.
Falcons remaining schedule
The Falcons’ path to the playoffs is clear but tough. They face a Commanders team that has yet to clinch a playoff spot, so they have no incentive to take it easy in Week 17. If Atlanta can notch a win on Sunday night, they’ll be in prime position to clinch next week.
However, things could be complicated with Penix making his second and third career starts over the next two weeks. Here’s how the Falcons schedule lines up:
Week 17: at Washington Commanders (10-5)
Week 18: vs. Carolina Panthers (4-11)
Buccaneers remaining schedule
After handing over control of the division with a loss last week, the Buccaneers don’t have to worry about a major challenge in the last two games. Division games can be tricky, but both matchups are winnable at home against the Panthers and Saints.
The simplest path would be for Tampa to win out and Atlanta to drop one game. Here’s how the schedule looks:
Week 17: vs. Carolina Panthers (4-11)
Week 18: vs. New Orleans Saints (5-10)
Falcons potential playoff opponents
The Falcons can be either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the 2024 NFL playoffs. That leaves them with a few possible opponents for the postseason, depending on how the results shake out. Here’s who they could face:
Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Washington Commanders
NFL playoff picture Week 17
AFC
Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners)*
Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winners)*
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)*
Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8).
NFC
Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West leaders)
Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
Minnesota Vikings (13-2, wild card No. 1)*
Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 2)
Washington Commanders (10-5, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.