It all comes down to this. Two teams. 40 minutes. One walks away with the NCAA men’s tournament national championship.
It’ll be a match of contrasting styles when Florida and Houston clash in San Antonio. The Gators want to play fast and rely on their offense – led by Walter Clayton Jr. – that has scored at least 70 points in all but three games this season. The Cougars want to rely on their defense that ranks No. 1 in the country in points allowed.
Both sides are comfortable playing close games with Florida easing past Auburn late in the first national semifinal and Houston staging an improbable late rally to topple Duke.
So who prevails and cuts down the nets Monday night? Our experts weigh in with their predictions.
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 1 Houston
Jordan Mendoza: After each team pulled off second half comebacks in the Final Four, which one has enough left to win the national title? Houston proved it could slow down a premier offense like Duke, but no one has had an answer for Walter Clayton Jr. this tournament. Given the “never quit” mentality each team possess, expect this one to go down to the final minutes. The Cougars hit their 3-pointers and are able to limit the Florida star, and they fend off a late rally by the Gators to win their first national championship. Houston 72, Florida 69.
Paul Myerberg: Houston carries over the ferocious rally in the final minutes against Duke and slows down Florida’s perimeter shooting to win the first national title in program history. In addition to its No. 1 defense, the Cougars have another edge in the turnover battle. They rank third in Division in turnover margin while Florida ranks 118th. Houston also leads the nation in 3-point shooting percentage, potentially negating the Gators’ typical production from deep. Houston 71, Florida 63.
Erick Smith: We use cliches in sports like the irresistible force facing the immovable object way too often. This matchup, however, does present a simple premise: Which team will be able to dictate how the game is played? Florida wants to go fast to take advantage of its open-court game and also diminish the half-court defense of Houston. The Cougars, meanwhile, want to slow the game down and make it a grinder. It’s hard to see either dominating, and that forecasts a close game down the wire. The Gators have the best clutch player on the court in Walter Clayton Jr. And he does it again for the SEC’s first title since 2012. Florida 66, Houston 65.
Eddie Timanus: Picking against Houston at this point seems like a bad idea given the way it has shown the ability to find ways to win in the most difficult of circumstances. Of course the same can be said of the Gators, who have also staged an improbable comeback or two this postseason. So one more time, I’ll stick with my choice from the beginning. Florida 68, Houston 65.
Dan Wolken: Both teams have pulled out improbable victories in the NCAA tournament to get to this point, so both may feel that a championship is their destiny. But the Cougars’ relentlessness and ability to take away what an opponent does best is the intangible that just wears people out. Houston may not have the most talent, but they’ve got plenty to hang in a close game, which is the area where they thrive. Betting against Kelvin Sampson with a 40-hour turnaround seems like a bad idea. Houston 61, Florida 57.