We’re barely three months into the first season of a 12-team College Football Playoff, and there’s no denying it now.
The SEC race has sucked the life from the CFP race – and could have wide-ranging implications for the future of the sport.
From looming changes to the new CFP contract format beginning in 2026, to impacting the SEC’s long-awaited decision on annual conference games, to the anticipated SEC-Big Ten scheduling agreement.
Everything will be affected by the rollout of this first 12-team CFP.
Or as one SEC athletics director, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the process, told USA TODAY, it’s short-term pain for long-term gain.
Translation: the SEC may have a deserving team (or teams) miss the 2024 CFP, but that potential scenario could set the framework for the new CFP format beginning in 2026 and beyond.
There are numerous ways the SEC and Big Ten – the sport’s super conferences wielding the most power – can push for change in the 2026 format. Among the possible changes: restructuring the selection committee, moving to 14 (or even 16) teams or guaranteeing a specific number of spots for the two super conferences.
“I don’t know what the they (CFP selection committee) are looking at,” said Georgia coach Kirby Smart. “I wish they could really define the criteria.”
While there are still three weeks of games remaining before this year’s final CFP poll, there already are indicators of the selection committee placing a premium on overall wins instead of strength of schedule and wins of significance. A committee charged with looking at entire resumes has apparently reverted to the tired historical method of more wins equals higher ranking.
In other words, the SEC believes its road to the CFP is more difficult than any other conference, and the rankings should reflect it. Instead, four of the top five teams in the latest CFP rankings are from the Big Ten.
Unbeaten Oregon, with wins over Ohio State and Boise State, is the clear No. 1. But No. 2 Ohio State’s lone win of significance is over one-loss No. 4 Penn State, which hasn’t beaten a ranked team in the CFP poll.
Then there’s unbeaten No. 5 Indiana, which hasn’t beaten a CFP-ranked team and could earn a spot in the playoff this weekend with a win over Ohio State – or even a close loss.
Meanwhile, SEC members are picking off each other in a round-robin demolition derby, and the CFP selection committee seems to be giving weight to teams who lost earlier in the season.
The most glaring problem: Ole Miss (with wins over No. 12 Georgia and No. 21 South Carolina), and Georgia (with wins over No. 3 Texas and No. 7 Tennessee) are seven and eight spots behind Penn State and Indiana. That difference in ranking could decided who hosts first round playoff games, and in what weather.
Those are some of the obstacles the SEC and Big Ten face while working on a scheduling agreement to expand their media-rights revenue base. If the CFP selection committee is giving value to wins over strength of schedule and wins of significance, there’s no reason for some SEC schools to agree to an annual non-conference game with the Big Ten.
There’s also no reason for SEC schools to agree to a nine-game conference schedule. Why play nine games in the toughest conference in the nation when it’s not rewarded?
One Big Ten athletics director, also speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the process, admitted to USA Today that it’s going to be difficult to dissuade SEC officials from that mindset if they perceive their teams not being rewarded for difficult schedules.
College football’s nine conference commissioners and Notre Dame athletics director Pete Bevacqua are expected to iron out the specifics of the 2026 format after this season. The Big Ten and SEC wanted to analyze one run of the new 12-team playoff before suggesting changes to the format.
The current setup – automatic qualifiers from champions of the Power Four conferences, the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion and seven at-large – almost certainly will not be the new format moving forward in 2026.
The SEC and Big Ten want more guaranteed access. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey has even advocated for no automatic qualifiers, which could give the SEC and Big Ten a greater advantage if the committee rewards bids based on strength of schedule and significant victories.
And that leads the argument to the intriguing case of Indiana, which has many SEC officials (and some in the ACC and Big 12) sideways. The Hoosiers have played one team (five-loss Washington) with a winning record.
That Washington game was played in Bloomington, Indiana, and IU’s three road games are against UCLA, Northwestern and Michigan State – which have a combined 12-18 record.
But the CFP selection committee is clearly enamored with the Hoosiers’ unbeaten record and average margin of victory (30 ppg.). To which another SEC athletics director told USA TODAY: Liberty was unbeaten last year, too.
Critics could also point to Texas, which is No. 3 in the nation and hasn’t beaten a current CFP-ranked team. The SEC’s highest-ranked team played one team in the current CFP Top 25 and lost by 15 at home, to Georgia.
“I wish they could do the eyeball test where they come down here and look at the people we’re playing against,” Smart said. “You can’t see that stuff on TV. So I don’t know what they look for. That’s for somebody else to decide.”
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.